Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +7 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -0.9 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -5.0 (-2.0) | 133.0 (+10.0) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -1.0 (-6.0) | 134.9 (+8.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -1.3 (-5.7) | 136.3 (+6.7) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -3.9 (-3.1) | 135.1 (+7.9) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | NEV 80 – 45 AF |
| Mar 8, 2026 | NEV 74 – 59 AF |
| Jan 17, 2026 | NEV 81 – 66 AF |
| Feb 5, 2025 | NEV 74 – 60 AF |
| Jan 15, 2025 | NEV 68 – 62 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 4-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-11 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.0 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#245) | 0.8 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#145) | 0.43 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#183) | 0.59 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#174) | 0.546 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 5.2 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 18.5% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.2% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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