Betting Lines
| Spread | SYR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SYR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +5 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | SYR -3.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SYR -1.9 (-6.9) | 151.3 (-4.3) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SYR -1.8 (-6.8) | 151.6 (-4.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SYR -1.8 (-6.8) | 151.9 (-4.9) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SYR -0.8 (-5.8) | 152.4 (-5.4) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | SYR 94 – 86 FSU |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SYR 66 – 62 FSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | FSU 90 – 74 SYR |
| Jan 24, 2024 | FSU 85 – 69 SYR |
| Feb 9, 2023 | SYR 76 – 67 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SYR | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#86) | 7.2 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#113) | 1.34 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#126) | 1.62 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#111) | 0.582 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SYR | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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