Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -550 MICH +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +15 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -11.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (-20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -11.1 (+3.9) | 142.2 (-21.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -10.4 (+4.6) | 145.9 (-24.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -10.0 (+5.0) | 146.1 (-25.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -9.8 (+5.2) | 144.1 (-23.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MICH 84 – 70 ILL |
| Mar 2, 2025 | ILL 93 – 73 MICH |
| Feb 14, 2024 | ILL 97 – 68 MICH |
| Jan 19, 2024 | ILL 88 – 73 MICH |
| Mar 3, 2023 | ILL 91 – 87 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#13) | 9.9 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#33) | 1.12 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.38 (#31) | 1.86 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#31) | 0.565 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 43.7 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 41.5% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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