Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +13 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -5.2 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -4.6 (-8.4) | 155.9 (+13.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -5.3 (-7.7) | 156.2 (+12.8) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -5.1 (-7.9) | 156.5 (+12.5) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -5.1 (-7.9) | 157.5 (+11.5) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | TOL 77 – 76 BGSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | BGSU 80 – 70 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | TOL 73 – 72 BGSU |
| Feb 21, 2025 | BGSU 69 – 68 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TOL 84 – 71 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 17-3 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-10 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#210) | 7.3 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#200) | 1.35 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#207) | 1.58 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#212) | 0.564 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.