Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +4 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -5.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -4.5 (-0.5) | 134.3 (+5.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -4.7 (-0.7) | 138.1 (+1.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -4.5 (-0.5) | 137.0 (+3.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -5.5 (-1.5) | 138.2 (+1.8) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UL 67 – 54 TXST |
| Jan 15, 2026 | TXST 59 – 54 UL |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UL 70 – 61 TXST |
| Jan 23, 2025 | TXST 89 – 74 UL |
| Jan 28, 2024 | UL 66 – 46 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-8 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 8-9 |
| Home | 12-1 | 7-6 |
| Away | 7-6 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#134) | 0.3 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#101) | 0.32 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#114) | 0.17 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#105) | 0.506 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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