Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +6 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | USA -8.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -6.7 (-0.7) | 137.0 (+3.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -6.5 (-0.5) | 141.4 (-1.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -6.9 (-0.9) | 141.3 (-1.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -6.6 (-0.6) | 139.2 (+0.8) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | GASO 94 – 85 USA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | USA 87 – 71 GASO |
| Jan 4, 2025 | USA 76 – 47 GASO |
| Mar 7, 2024 | GASO 76 – 71 USA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | USA 78 – 65 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 5-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 63.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#126) | -2.3 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#133) | -0.08 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#136) | -0.46 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#109) | 0.481 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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