Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +36 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -8.9 (-27.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-28.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -10.3 (-25.7) | 142.6 (-22.6) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -7.5 (-28.5) | 146.9 (-26.9) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -8.5 (-27.5) | 145.5 (-25.5) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -9.9 (-26.1) | 143.8 (-23.8) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CSU 85 – 73 SJSU |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CSU 65 – 57 SJSU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | CSU 83 – 56 SJSU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | CSU 72 – 50 SJSU |
| Mar 13, 2024 | CSU 72 – 62 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 25-6 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 14-4 |
| Home | 7-9 | 14-1 |
| Away | 1-13 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.5 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#243) | 8.8 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#182) | 3.18 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#191) | 3.96 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#163) | 0.650 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 14.7% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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