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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
41–10 on winners
spread MAE 8.5
51 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio State
@
Wisconsin
|
+4.4 | 145.1 | 70% | 68–78 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
Texas Tech
|
+10.0 | 130.8 | 82% | 57–78 | ✓ |
Canisius
@
Niagara
|
+8.3 | 135.3 | 80% | 58–68 | ✓ |
Lafayette
@
Loyola Maryland
|
+8.5 | 138.7 | 81% | 60–74 | ✓ |
Lehigh
@
Bucknell
|
+3.9 | 145.5 | 66% | 97–64 | ✗ |
Butler
@
Georgetown
|
+1.9 | 137.9 | 64% | 72–58 | ✗ |
Colgate
@
Navy
|
+7.5 | 137.1 | 80% | 69–50 | ✗ |
UTSA
@
Old Dominion
|
+10.6 | 138.0 | 86% | 51–83 | ✓ |
North Texas
@
Marshall
|
-8.0 | 136.2 | 22% | 69–65 | ✓ |
Southern Miss
@
Louisiana Tech
|
+18.0 | 139.0 | 91% | 57–80 | ✓ |
Florida Atlantic
@
Middle Tennessee
|
+4.9 | 141.3 | 72% | 57–70 | ✓ |
UTEP
@
Charlotte
|
+2.9 | 141.8 | 66% | 53–66 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
Winthrop
|
+1.9 | 145.8 | 60% | 80–86 | ✓ |
Wright State
@
Robert Morris
|
-3.5 | 149.7 | 29% | 75–73 | ✓ |
Northern Kentucky
@
Youngstown State
|
+5.0 | 141.1 | 69% | 68–67 | ✗ |
Oakland
@
Cleveland State
|
-1.6 | 149.5 | 45% | 70–65 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Purdue Fort Wayne
|
-1.4 | 143.1 | 48% | 60–62 | ✗ |
VMI
@
Mercer
|
+1.4 | 146.0 | 56% | 91–97 | ✓ |
UNC Greensboro
@
The Citadel
|
-0.8 | 136.7 | 44% | 69–74 | ✗ |
Florida International
@
UAB
|
+16.4 | 148.4 | 89% | 56–84 | ✓ |
Tennessee State
@
Murray State
|
+17.5 | 151.3 | 91% | 44–67 | ✓ |
Sam Houston
@
Lamar
|
-4.1 | 136.1 | 32% | 73–56 | ✓ |
Chicago State
@
UT Rio Grande Valley
|
+7.2 | 147.0 | 78% | 63–85 | ✓ |
UIC
@
Milwaukee
|
+0.3 | 136.2 | 49% | 81–77 | ✗ |
IU Indianapolis
@
Green Bay
|
+9.0 | 125.6 | 81% | 54–69 | ✓ |
UL Monroe
@
Texas State
|
+7.7 | 147.3 | 79% | 56–80 | ✓ |
Louisiana
@
UT Arlington
|
+0.8 | 138.7 | 54% | 73–83 | ✓ |
Denver
@
South Dakota
|
+3.3 | 144.1 | 64% | 71–80 | ✓ |
Western Illinois
@
North Dakota
|
-10.4 | 154.6 | 16% | 73–68 | ✓ |
Tennessee Tech
@
Belmont
|
+17.4 | 146.5 | 90% | 77–92 | ✓ |
South Dakota State
@
Omaha
|
-13.6 | 164.6 | 14% | 95–86 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Eastern Illinois
|
-11.3 | 128.2 | 16% | 66–53 | ✓ |
Rice
@
Western Kentucky
|
+5.1 | 153.5 | 71% | 66–80 | ✓ |
Idaho
@
Weber State
|
+11.7 | 158.7 | 87% | 74–84 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
Grand Canyon
|
+3.9 | 133.0 | 71% | 68–95 | ✓ |
Tarleton State
@
New Mexico State
|
+7.0 | 133.4 | 78% | 57–73 | ✓ |
Georgia State
@
South Alabama
|
+9.6 | 148.9 | 84% | 65–74 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Iowa
|
+4.7 | 150.2 | 67% | 74–83 | ✓ |
Oregon
@
UCLA
|
+12.5 | 147.2 | 87% | 84–81 | ✗ |
UC Santa Barbara
@
Long Beach State
|
-0.8 | 149.9 | 45% | 58–65 | ✗ |
Cal State Northridge
@
Cal State Fullerton
|
+8.8 | 131.4 | 83% | 64–79 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
Cal Poly
|
-5.7 | 126.9 | 28% | 57–46 | ✓ |
Portland
@
San Diego
|
+4.6 | 138.0 | 71% | 63–68 | ✓ |
BYU
@
Gonzaga
|
+11.3 | 152.4 | 85% | 84–110 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
USC
|
+15.1 | 143.6 | 88% | 71–81 | ✓ |
Colorado
@
Arizona
|
+16.2 | 155.8 | 90% | 55–76 | ✓ |
Saint Mary's
@
Pepperdine
|
-12.0 | 135.2 | 15% | 77–62 | ✓ |
Loyola Marymount
@
San Francisco
|
+11.5 | 136.5 | 87% | 73–97 | ✓ |
UC Irvine
@
Hawai'i
|
-5.8 | 130.4 | 28% | 56–72 | ✗ |
Buffalo
@
Ball State
|
-3.8 | 157.2 | 35% | 74–68 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Purdue
|
+19.8 | 160.3 | 91% | 65–92 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.