Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -20.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +27 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -24.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -20.8 (+6.2) | 160.2 (-3.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -19.8 (+7.2) | 160.3 (-3.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -21.6 (+5.4) | 160.6 (-3.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -22.6 (+4.4) | 159.1 (-2.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | PUR 74 – 58 NEB |
| Feb 11, 2026 | PUR 80 – 77 NEB |
| Jan 12, 2025 | PUR 104 – 68 NEB |
| Jan 10, 2024 | NEB 88 – 72 PUR |
| Jan 14, 2023 | PUR 73 – 55 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 4-16 |
| Home | 16-1 | 7-12 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 78.5 |
| Massey | 18.0 (#8) | -2.5 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#17) | -0.79 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.20 (#14) | -0.40 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.627 (#21) | 0.463 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.8% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.2% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 38.9% | 20.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.1% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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