Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
| Money | NIA -280 CAN +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +10 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -11.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -7.3 (+2.7) | 134.1 (-8.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -8.3 (+1.7) | 135.3 (-9.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -8.8 (+1.2) | 135.8 (-9.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -8.4 (+1.6) | 136.6 (-10.6) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | NIA 65 – 56 CAN |
| Jan 15, 2026 | NIA 59 – 54 CAN |
| Feb 12, 2025 | NIA 71 – 60 CAN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | NIA 64 – 63 CAN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | CAN 69 – 59 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-13 |
| Home | 7-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#150) | -7.1 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#238) | -1.16 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#243) | -2.07 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#197) | 0.453 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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