Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
| Money | L-MD -289 LAF +233 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +14 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | L-MD -9.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -7.0 (+7.0) | 137.8 (-3.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -8.5 (+5.5) | 138.7 (-4.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -8.1 (+5.9) | 138.9 (-4.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -8.3 (+5.7) | 140.2 (-6.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | L-MD 68 – 54 LAF |
| Jan 3, 2026 | LAF 79 – 64 L-MD |
| Feb 6, 2025 | L-MD 71 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 23, 2025 | LAF 80 – 59 L-MD |
| Feb 15, 2024 | L-MD 79 – 64 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-3 | 6-9 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#246) | -9.9 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#203) | -2.41 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#221) | -3.31 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#221) | 0.410 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 13.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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