Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
| Money | NAVY -135 COLG +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +19 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -8.5 (-27.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (-17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -6.6 (-25.6) | 134.8 (-15.8) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -7.5 (-26.5) | 137.1 (-18.1) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -8.2 (-27.2) | 138.6 (-19.6) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -7.4 (-26.4) | 137.0 (-18.0) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | NAVY 85 – 69 COLG |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NAVY 84 – 80 COLG |
| Feb 20, 2025 | COLG 79 – 75 NAVY |
| Jan 16, 2025 | COLG 73 – 66 NAVY |
| Feb 3, 2024 | COLG 88 – 64 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 16-2 |
| Home | 9-6 | 15-1 |
| Away | 11-5 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.8 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#106) | 0.2 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#98) | -1.26 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#107) | -1.27 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#132) | 0.436 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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