Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | CIT +140 UNCG -160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIT +5 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -0.4 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -1.5 (+6.5) | 135.8 (+7.2) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -0.8 (+5.8) | 136.7 (+6.3) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -0.7 (+5.7) | 136.9 (+6.1) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -1.6 (+6.6) | 134.4 (+8.6) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | CIT 71 – 66 UNCG |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UNCG 69 – 66 CIT |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNCG 76 – 61 CIT |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 57 CIT |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNCG 76 – 61 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-8 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-9 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 65.1 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#249) | -0.1 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#273) | 0.47 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#286) | 0.80 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#250) | 0.512 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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