Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA -210 IU +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +9 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -5.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -5.5 (+3.5) | 152.5 (+4.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -4.7 (+4.3) | 150.2 (+6.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -5.1 (+3.9) | 152.9 (+4.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -5.3 (+3.7) | 153.6 (+3.4) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | IOWA 74 – 57 IU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | IOWA 85 – 60 IU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | IU 74 – 68 IOWA |
| Mar 1, 2023 | IOWA 90 – 68 IU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | IOWA 91 – 89 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#19) | 12.5 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#52) | 2.18 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#42) | 3.26 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#71) | 0.608 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 2.02 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 12.1% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 41.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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