Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP +600 SMC -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +15 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -11.3 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -10.0 (-5.0) | 132.8 (+6.2) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -12.0 (-3.0) | 135.2 (+3.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -11.3 (-3.7) | 134.5 (+4.5) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -11.7 (-3.3) | 135.3 (+3.7) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | SMC 88 – 60 PEPP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | SMC 72 – 45 PEPP |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SMC 74 – 59 PEPP |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SMC 74 – 50 PEPP |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SMC 71 – 41 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 1-15 | 12-3 |
| Home | 7-9 | 16-0 |
| Away | 0-13 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 61.3 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#268) | 9.2 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#264) | 2.24 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#259) | 2.72 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#273) | 0.615 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 80.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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