Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
| Money | GCU -180 ACU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +27 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -3.3 (+23.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (+32.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -4.0 (+23.0) | 134.5 (+28.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -3.9 (+23.1) | 133.0 (+30.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -4.6 (+22.4) | 134.8 (+28.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -4.0 (+23.0) | 134.9 (+28.1) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2025 | ACU 82 – 81 GCU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | GCU 88 – 58 ACU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ACU 79 – 73 GCU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | GCU 74 – 64 ACU |
| Feb 18, 2023 | GCU 94 – 84 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-8 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.0 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#107) | 5.3 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#56) | 0.55 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#83) | 0.90 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#141) | 0.516 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.9 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 39.6% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 29.5% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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