Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +6 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -6.2 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.6 (-19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -5.7 (-0.3) | 155.8 (-13.8) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -3.8 (-2.2) | 157.2 (-15.2) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -4.4 (-1.6) | 156.8 (-14.8) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -4.6 (-1.4) | 156.6 (-14.6) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | BUF 63 – 53 BALL |
| Jan 3, 2026 | BUF 85 – 72 BALL |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BALL 80 – 66 BUF |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BALL 89 – 76 BUF |
| Jan 24, 2024 | BALL 87 – 59 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 19-11 |
| Conference | 9-10 | 13-6 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#278) | 3.6 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#236) | 0.09 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#240) | 0.55 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#260) | 0.503 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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