Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
| Money | TXST -360 ULM +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +24 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -10.3 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -9.2 (+14.8) | 142.2 (-6.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -7.7 (+16.3) | 147.3 (-11.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -7.7 (+16.3) | 146.9 (-10.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -7.3 (+16.7) | 146.5 (-10.5) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | TXST 95 – 84 ULM |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TXST 84 – 79 ULM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | TXST 80 – 63 ULM |
| Feb 14, 2025 | TXST 72 – 60 ULM |
| Feb 28, 2024 | TXST 73 – 55 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-8 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-1 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#149) | -5.5 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#108) | -0.05 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#124) | -0.12 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#102) | 0.517 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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