Betting Lines
| Spread | SDAK -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | SDAK -300 DEN +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +9 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | SDAK -3.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDAK -5.7 (+3.3) | 140.8 (+10.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDAK -3.3 (+5.7) | 144.1 (+6.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDAK -3.2 (+5.8) | 144.9 (+6.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDAK -4.1 (+4.9) | 142.6 (+8.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | DEN 90 – 70 SDAK |
| Jan 10, 2026 | SDAK 82 – 72 DEN |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SDAK 86 – 79 DEN |
| Jan 5, 2025 | SDAK 91 – 84 DEN |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SDAK 92 – 86 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#301) | -7.5 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#223) | -1.66 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#238) | -2.21 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#263) | 0.398 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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