Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | SF -475 LMU +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +24 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | SF -13.7 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (+35.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -10.5 (+13.5) | 137.5 (+32.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -11.5 (+12.5) | 136.5 (+33.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -11.6 (+12.4) | 137.6 (+32.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -11.4 (+12.6) | 135.9 (+34.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | LMU 84 – 75 SF |
| Jan 9, 2026 | LMU 84 – 82 SF |
| Feb 9, 2025 | SF 72 – 66 LMU |
| Dec 29, 2024 | SF 70 – 55 LMU |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SF 82 – 59 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 3-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 7-2 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#46) | -0.5 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#27) | 0.60 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.48 (#27) | 0.64 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#20) | 0.520 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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