Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MER -135 VMI +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +6 | 188 | Won |
| Massey | MER -1.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (+40.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -1.2 (+4.8) | 150.0 (+38.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -1.4 (+4.6) | 146.0 (+42.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -0.6 (+5.4) | 146.9 (+41.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -0.8 (+5.2) | 147.0 (+41.0) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | MER 95 – 81 VMI |
| Jan 15, 2026 | MER 77 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 15, 2025 | VMI 80 – 71 MER |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MER 70 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MER 90 – 69 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#228) | -0.1 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#179) | 0.02 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#190) | 0.17 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#181) | 0.507 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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