Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Over |
| Money | NMSU -550 TAR +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +16 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -8.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -7.4 (+8.6) | 133.2 (-3.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -7.0 (+9.0) | 133.4 (-3.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -7.0 (+9.0) | 133.9 (-3.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -6.1 (+9.9) | 133.4 (-3.4) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2021 | TAR 64 – 55 NMSU |
| Feb 27, 2021 | NMSU 78 – 51 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 10-3 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#101) | 1.1 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#45) | -0.08 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#55) | 0.32 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#38) | 0.505 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 28.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 25.7% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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