Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
| Money | TAR +265 NMSU -330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +27 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -0.7 (-26.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -2.0 (-25.0) | 129.8 (-0.8) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -0.1 (-27.1) | 134.5 (-5.5) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -0.1 (-27.1) | 135.2 (-6.2) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -0.9 (-26.1) | 133.5 (-4.5) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2022 | NMSU 73 – 57 TAR |
| Feb 28, 2021 | TAR 64 – 55 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-10 | 12-8 |
| Conference | 5-7 | 7-6 |
| Home | 6-3 | 3-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 65.4 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#269) | -3.4 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#319) | -1.77 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.40 (#310) | -1.84 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#248) | 0.419 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 27.5 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 18.2% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.5% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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