Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Under |
| Money | TAR +340 NMSU -430 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +9 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -5.0 (+14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -4.3 (+13.3) | 126.2 (-7.2) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -2.9 (+11.9) | 131.6 (-12.6) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -2.9 (+11.9) | 131.4 (-12.4) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -4.2 (+13.2) | 130.6 (-11.6) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2022 | NMSU 73 – 57 TAR |
| Feb 27, 2021 | NMSU 78 – 51 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-10 | 12-8 |
| Conference | 5-7 | 7-6 |
| Home | 6-3 | 3-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 65.4 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#286) | -1.0 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.28 (#327) | -1.45 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.67 (#318) | -1.44 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#288) | 0.430 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 26.9 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 5.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 18.4% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.5% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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