Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Over |
| Money | WIN -260 UNCA +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +6 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -4.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -5.3 (+0.7) | 145.3 (+20.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -1.9 (+4.1) | 145.8 (+20.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -1.9 (+4.1) | 145.6 (+20.4) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -2.2 (+3.8) | 145.5 (+20.5) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | WIN 84 – 71 UNCA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | WIN 69 – 67 UNCA |
| Mar 8, 2025 | WIN 86 – 67 UNCA |
| Mar 1, 2025 | WIN 103 – 90 UNCA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNCA 93 – 84 WIN |
Game Analysis
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