Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
| Money | PFW -115 DETM -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +2 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | DETM -0.6 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DETM -0.6 (+2.6) | 140.1 (-18.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DETM -1.4 (+3.4) | 143.1 (-21.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DETM -0.0 (+2.0) | 143.7 (-21.7) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DETM -0.7 (+2.7) | 141.1 (-19.1) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | PFW 83 – 76 DETM |
| Dec 14, 2025 | PFW 81 – 77 DETM |
| Jan 12, 2025 | PFW 90 – 67 DETM |
| Dec 5, 2024 | DETM 79 – 78 PFW |
| Feb 17, 2024 | PFW 83 – 69 DETM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 15-6 | 10-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-1 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-15 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#274) | -1.9 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#262) | -0.61 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#277) | -0.87 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#288) | 0.464 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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