Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +17 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | UVM -4.8 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -4.2 (-12.8) | 140.0 (+15.0) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -4.8 (-12.2) | 143.5 (+11.5) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -5.0 (-12.0) | 144.6 (+10.4) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -5.0 (-12.0) | 141.7 (+13.3) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | UMBC 74 – 59 UVM |
| Feb 19, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 62 UVM |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UVM 64 – 55 UMBC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UVM 79 – 69 UMBC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UMBC 80 – 63 UVM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 17-1 |
| Home | 11-4 | 16-0 |
| Away | 6-10 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 61.1 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#209) | 7.0 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#231) | 1.17 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#219) | 1.57 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#236) | 0.564 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 5.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 19.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 80.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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