Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +18 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -17.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.7 (-20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -15.9 (+2.1) | 154.6 (-12.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -15.3 (+2.7) | 159.2 (-17.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -15.9 (+2.1) | 160.1 (-18.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -15.5 (+2.5) | 159.0 (-17.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | DEN 79 – 61 SDST |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SDST 87 – 79 DEN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | DEN 78 – 62 SDST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SDST 91 – 70 DEN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | SDST 76 – 68 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 18-0 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-0 | 6-7 |
| Away | 10-3 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#94) | -7.9 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#77) | -1.75 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#95) | -2.32 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#64) | 0.396 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 43.2% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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