Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +9 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | MER -1.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -0.4 (+8.6) | 127.5 (-20.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -1.0 (+8.0) | 132.1 (-25.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -0.3 (+8.7) | 132.7 (-25.7) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -0.8 (+8.2) | 129.5 (-22.5) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | MER 95 – 77 UNCG |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MER 102 – 92 UNCG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCG 78 – 61 MER |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MER 79 – 78 UNCG |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MER 86 – 72 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 65.1 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#224) | -0.4 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#173) | 0.21 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#179) | 0.39 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#167) | 0.501 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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