Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +7 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -11.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -8.7 (-1.7) | 142.2 (+10.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -9.3 (-2.3) | 141.6 (+11.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -9.4 (-2.4) | 141.6 (+11.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -9.0 (-2.0) | 138.2 (+14.8) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | CREI 94 – 93 XAV |
| Dec 17, 2025 | CREI 98 – 57 XAV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | XAV 83 – 61 CREI |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CREI 86 – 77 XAV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CREI 78 – 71 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 12-7 |
| Home | 16-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#19) | 6.8 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#21) | 2.30 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.78 (#21) | 3.63 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#22) | 0.578 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 14.3% |
Game Analysis
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