Betting Lines
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV +105 FRES -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +5 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | FRES -2.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.1 (+19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -2.3 (-2.7) | 130.9 (+10.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -1.3 (-3.7) | 131.4 (+9.6) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -0.9 (-4.1) | 132.2 (+8.8) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -1.0 (-4.0) | 131.0 (+10.0) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | FRES 98 – 96 UNLV |
| Dec 21, 2025 | UNLV 84 – 72 FRES |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNLV 52 – 51 FRES |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UNLV 87 – 77 FRES |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNLV 67 – 65 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 59.6 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#130) | 8.6 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#134) | 1.22 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#113) | 1.72 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#125) | 0.563 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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