Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +20 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -1.2 (+21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -1.0 (+19.0) | 133.4 (-7.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -0.7 (+20.7) | 132.5 (-6.5) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -0.1 (+20.1) | 133.6 (-7.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -0.8 (+19.2) | 131.4 (-5.4) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | VCU 89 – 82 SBU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | VCU 76 – 59 SBU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | VCU 75 – 61 SBU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | SBU 77 – 75 VCU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | SBU 67 – 62 VCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 12-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-4 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 62.4 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#114) | 8.8 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#62) | 1.72 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#79) | 2.01 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#73) | 0.577 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 41.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 26.7% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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