Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | TXSO -0.3 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (+14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -2.6 (+3.6) | 133.7 (+11.3) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -0.6 (+1.6) | 136.0 (+9.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -0.4 (+1.4) | 135.7 (+9.3) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -0.7 (+1.7) | 134.6 (+10.4) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | TXSO 92 – 87 ALCN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TXSO 72 – 71 ALCN |
| Mar 4, 2025 | TXSO 75 – 59 ALCN |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TXSO 66 – 57 ALCN |
| Mar 5, 2024 | ALCN 82 – 79 TXSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-3 | 7-2 |
| Away | 9-13 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 66.1 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#239) | 0.7 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#228) | 0.07 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#228) | 0.18 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#171) | 0.497 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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