Betting Lines
| Spread | MORG -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COPP +3 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | COPP -1.2 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COPP -0.3 (-2.7) | 151.4 (+3.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COPP -1.6 (-1.4) | 146.6 (+8.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COPP -1.5 (-1.5) | 146.8 (+8.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COPP -2.0 (-1.0) | 151.1 (+3.9) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | MORG 70 – 66 COPP |
| Jan 31, 2026 | MORG 89 – 80 COPP |
| Mar 7, 2025 | COPP 82 – 75 MORG |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MORG 80 – 64 COPP |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MORG 78 – 60 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-15 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 6-8 |
| Home | 8-3 | 3-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-16 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -12.6 (#335) | -7.6 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#310) | -1.60 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.83 (#326) | -1.77 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#312) | 0.435 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 20.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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