Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +3 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | HOW -7.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -2.2 (-5.2) | 144.5 (+6.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -4.0 (-7.0) | 143.2 (+7.8) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -3.8 (-6.8) | 144.7 (+6.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -2.5 (-5.5) | 146.5 (+4.5) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HOW 84 – 76 NORF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOW 88 – 60 NORF |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NORF 81 – 69 HOW |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NORF 92 – 75 HOW |
| Mar 15, 2024 | HOW 80 – 74 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-13 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 12-2 |
| Home | 8-4 | 11-0 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 66.6 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#165) | -3.3 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#282) | 0.14 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#259) | 0.15 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#308) | 0.482 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 63.1% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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