Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +20 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -3.8 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -3.7 (-16.3) | 131.0 (-7.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -2.9 (-17.1) | 137.5 (-13.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -3.3 (-16.7) | 138.2 (-14.2) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -2.3 (-17.7) | 135.8 (-11.8) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | DAY 78 – 66 DUQ |
| Jan 14, 2026 | DAY 71 – 65 DUQ |
| Feb 15, 2025 | DAY 77 – 76 DUQ |
| Jan 22, 2025 | DAY 82 – 62 DUQ |
| Mar 15, 2024 | DUQ 65 – 57 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-24 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 1-16 | 14-4 |
| Home | 3-11 | 13-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L17 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 61.2 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#206) | 6.1 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#220) | 0.82 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#202) | 0.92 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#235) | 0.526 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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