Betting Lines
| Spread | EMU -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | EMU -1.4 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EMU -0.4 (+7.4) | 145.6 (+1.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EMU -1.1 (+8.1) | 141.7 (+5.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EMU -1.2 (+8.2) | 142.4 (+4.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EMU -1.6 (+8.6) | 144.1 (+2.9) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 13, 2026 | EMU 77 – 59 NIU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | EMU 79 – 76 NIU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | EMU 75 – 71 NIU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NIU 76 – 66 EMU |
| Mar 3, 2023 | NIU 85 – 66 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 5-15 |
| Home | 3-8 | 8-7 |
| Away | 6-11 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#316) | -4.1 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#219) | -0.61 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#239) | -0.79 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#228) | 0.477 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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