Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +1 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | UCR -2.4 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 110.9 (+18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -2.0 (+1.0) | 124.0 (+5.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -2.5 (+1.5) | 121.7 (+7.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -3.2 (+2.2) | 124.1 (+4.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -3.4 (+2.4) | 125.1 (+3.9) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UCR 93 – 65 CSUB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | CSUB 67 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCR 69 – 64 CSUB |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCR 83 – 79 CSUB |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UCR 83 – 78 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-19 | 16-12 |
| Conference | 2-12 | 9-6 |
| Home | 5-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-11 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 64.3 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#259) | 1.1 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#225) | 0.60 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#234) | 0.33 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#216) | 0.520 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.5% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 81.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.7% | 14.7% |
Game Analysis
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