Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +3 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -2.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+30.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -0.9 (-3.9) | 146.5 (+26.5) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -2.1 (-5.1) | 145.0 (+28.0) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -1.3 (-4.3) | 145.3 (+27.7) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -1.5 (-4.5) | 144.9 (+28.1) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SAM 82 – 72 ETSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | ETSU 76 – 75 SAM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ETSU 66 – 59 SAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 60 SAM |
| Mar 11, 2024 | SAM 76 – 69 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#221) | -0.9 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#108) | 0.47 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#147) | 0.42 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#127) | 0.528 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 12.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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