Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +14 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -5.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -5.5 (+8.5) | 142.9 (-2.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -7.3 (+6.7) | 141.6 (-1.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -7.3 (+6.7) | 141.2 (-1.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -6.3 (+7.7) | 142.0 (-2.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | ACU 77 – 69 NMSU |
| Dec 5, 2024 | ACU 78 – 70 NMSU |
| Mar 13, 2022 | NMSU 66 – 52 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 10-3 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#99) | 3.6 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#46) | 0.52 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#54) | 0.81 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#44) | 0.523 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 29.0% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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