Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
Western Athletic Conference · Pan American Center · January 15, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread NMSU -8.0 Home covered
O/U 142.0 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total NMSU win
Actual NMSU +14 140 Won
Massey NMSU -5.8 (+8.2)
Massey Totals 143.4 (-3.4)
Bradley-Terry 91%
Weighted B-T 91%
Efficiency Plus ML NMSU -5.5 (+8.5) 142.9 (-2.9) 72%
Baseline Tuned ML NMSU -7.3 (+6.7) 141.6 (-1.6) 79%
Baseline ML NMSU -7.3 (+6.7) 141.2 (-1.2) 77%
Baseline Plus ML NMSU -6.3 (+7.7) 142.0 (-2.0) 76%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 6, 2025 ACU 7769 NMSU
Dec 5, 2024 ACU 7870 NMSU
Mar 13, 2022 NMSU 6652 ACU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NMSU ACU
Overall 27-7 25-11
Conference 14-4 11-7
Home 13-2 14-3
Away 10-3 6-6
Neutral 5-2 5-2
Last 5 5-0 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.7 73.9
Avg Pts Against 64.9 69.5
Massey 5.6 (#99) 3.6 (#116)
Bradley-Terry 2.20 (#46) 0.52 (#129)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.33 (#54) 0.81 (#116)
RPI 0.592 (#44) 0.523 (#128)
Shooting & Four Factors NMSU ACU
FG% 47.0% 42.3%
3PT% 33.7% 33.7%
REB / G 37.1 30.9
OREB / G 9.8 9.3
AST / TO 1.02 1.07
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.8% 48.3%
TOV% 20.8% 17.9%
ORB% 31.1% 24.9%
FT Rate 23.0% 24.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.9% 51.5%
Opp TOV% 15.6% 29.0%
DRB% 73.9% 68.7%
Opp FT Rate 22.8% 28.8%

Game Analysis

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