Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | NMSU -145 ACU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +8 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -4.7 (-12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -1.9 (-9.9) | 135.1 (+12.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -3.0 (-11.0) | 135.6 (+12.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -3.0 (-11.0) | 136.2 (+11.8) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -2.4 (-10.4) | 136.8 (+11.2) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | ACU 77 – 69 NMSU |
| Mar 13, 2022 | NMSU 66 – 52 ACU |
| Jan 15, 2022 | NMSU 77 – 63 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 8-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#224) | -3.0 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#292) | -0.16 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#292) | -0.42 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#318) | 0.484 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.5% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 33.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.9% | 42.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.