Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +14 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -2.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -1.9 (+12.1) | 140.0 (-22.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -2.3 (+11.7) | 139.4 (-21.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -2.5 (+11.5) | 138.8 (-20.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -1.7 (+12.3) | 139.0 (-21.0) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | ACU 77 – 69 NMSU |
| Dec 5, 2024 | ACU 78 – 70 NMSU |
| Jan 15, 2022 | NMSU 77 – 63 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 10-3 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#89) | 3.5 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#50) | 0.82 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#58) | 0.95 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#30) | 0.529 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 28.7% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 35.3% |
Game Analysis
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