Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | ACU +105 NMSU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +8 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -5.4 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -5.4 (+13.4) | 129.0 (+17.0) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -1.6 (+9.6) | 131.4 (+14.6) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -2.0 (+10.0) | 130.8 (+15.2) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -2.9 (+10.9) | 130.8 (+15.2) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2024 | ACU 78 – 70 NMSU |
| Mar 13, 2022 | NMSU 66 – 52 ACU |
| Jan 15, 2022 | NMSU 77 – 63 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 73.8 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#268) | 3.9 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#181) | 1.60 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#188) | 2.45 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#217) | 0.593 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 42.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.0% | 33.1% |
Game Analysis
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