Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +15 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -18.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -13.4 (+1.6) | 156.9 (+4.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -15.5 (-0.5) | 155.2 (+5.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -16.0 (-1.0) | 154.9 (+6.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -16.5 (-1.5) | 154.2 (+6.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | DUKE 93 – 64 NCSU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | DUKE 74 – 64 NCSU |
| Mar 31, 2024 | NCSU 76 – 64 DUKE |
| Mar 14, 2024 | NCSU 74 – 69 DUKE |
| Mar 5, 2024 | DUKE 79 – 64 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 4-16 |
| Home | 15-3 | 7-10 |
| Away | 9-2 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 17.3 (#12) | 2.7 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#19) | 0.29 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.27 (#13) | 0.62 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#34) | 0.499 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.7% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.