Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +4 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -5.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -2.5 (+1.5) | 135.5 (-21.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -2.1 (+1.9) | 134.7 (-20.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -2.1 (+1.9) | 135.1 (-21.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -2.0 (+2.0) | 136.4 (-22.4) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ALST 89 – 88 AAMU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | AAMU 73 – 69 ALST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALST 94 – 52 AAMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ALST 69 – 65 AAMU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AAMU 58 – 53 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-6 | 6-3 |
| Away | 3-15 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 61.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#304) | -9.7 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#324) | -1.46 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.80 (#324) | -2.05 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#316) | 0.414 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 41.3% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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