Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GRAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +6 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -5.1 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -5.0 (+11.0) | 139.7 (+20.3) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -6.5 (+12.5) | 140.3 (+19.7) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -5.4 (+11.4) | 140.2 (+19.8) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -5.2 (+11.2) | 141.0 (+19.0) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SOU 87 – 73 GRAM |
| Jan 17, 2026 | SOU 71 – 53 GRAM |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GRAM 65 – 62 SOU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SOU 71 – 64 GRAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | SOU 67 – 60 GRAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GRAM | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-4 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-14 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -10.4 (#326) | -1.5 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.15 (#322) | 0.20 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.97 (#330) | -0.09 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#295) | 0.509 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GRAM | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.2% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 25.5% |
| DRB% | 63.5% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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