Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +12 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -2.4 (+14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -2.2 (+14.2) | 131.6 (-13.6) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -2.4 (+14.4) | 132.7 (-14.7) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -2.6 (+14.6) | 134.0 (-16.0) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -2.4 (+14.4) | 133.0 (-15.0) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | LOU 100 – 59 PITT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | LOU 79 – 68 PITT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LOU 82 – 78 PITT |
| Feb 17, 2024 | PITT 86 – 59 LOU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | PITT 83 – 70 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 6-14 |
| Home | 9-11 | 8-8 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#205) | 4.8 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#210) | 1.08 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#226) | 1.21 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#201) | 0.573 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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