This will be our year, took a long time to come "This Will Be Our Year" - The Zombies
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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72–36 on winners spread MAE 8.4 108 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Siena @ Marist +9.0 134.8 80% 67–60 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Rider -0.4 141.3 43% 77–70 ✓
Monmouth @ Saint Peter's -9.3 136.9 28% 62–67 ✗
Manhattan @ Iona +14.5 152.0 87% 76–88 ✓
VCU @ St. Bonaventure -0.1 133.6 49% 53–73 ✗
Akron @ Kent State -0.0 135.4 45% 55–67 ✗
Michigan @ Illinois +10.0 146.1 85% 53–68 ✓
Davidson @ Richmond -1.3 144.2 44% 87–84 ✓
Fresno State @ UNLV -0.9 132.2 39% 73–68 ✓
Northwestern @ Michigan State +9.6 150.0 77% 64–62 ✗
Creighton @ Xavier +9.4 141.6 80% 73–80 ✓
Texas Tech @ Kansas State -4.7 125.2 41% 51–62 ✗
Seton Hall @ Marquette +2.4 153.6 64% 72–73 ✓
Dayton @ Duquesne -3.3 138.2 36% 72–52 ✓
Tennessee @ Kentucky +4.6 144.3 74% 79–107 ✓
UTSA @ Charlotte +14.2 145.2 88% 53–62 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Wagner +17.0 134.2 89% 76–81 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Bryant +4.7 145.6 66% 66–73 ✓
Vermont @ UMBC -5.0 144.6 32% 86–69 ✓
Oakland @ Purdue Fort Wayne -7.7 141.7 20% 76–68 ✓
VMI @ The Citadel +0.3 156.1 50% 90–85 ✗
Florida @ South Carolina -0.5 140.7 51% 71–63 ✓
NC State @ Duke +16.0 154.9 87% 73–88 ✓
West Virginia @ Kansas +10.4 144.0 83% 59–85 ✓
Arkansas @ LSU +14.2 142.3 82% 65–58 ✗
Texas @ Iowa State +2.7 125.6 53% 70–79 ✓
SMU @ Tulane +0.3 148.2 52% 75–66 ✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee State -7.8 141.7 23% 71–64 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Sacred Heart +5.4 142.1 81% 71–77 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Long Island University +9.4 141.4 82% 61–83 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ UNC Asheville +11.1 144.9 84% 76–73 ✗
Radford @ Campbell +6.6 130.7 71% 58–70 ✓
Harvard @ Columbia -6.5 145.9 26% 91–82 ✓
Dartmouth @ Pennsylvania +2.4 139.7 63% 68–78 ✓
Cornell @ Yale +3.2 154.2 66% 69–96 ✓
Brown @ Princeton +6.7 148.9 80% 74–76 ✓
App State @ Coastal Carolina +4.2 133.1 65% 84–76 ✗
Western Illinois @ North Dakota State +3.0 149.6 67% 90–79 ✗
Wofford @ Western Carolina -6.3 147.6 27% 84–64 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Mercer +0.3 132.7 49% 49–58 ✓
Delaware @ Hofstra +5.0 151.7 68% 77–82 ✓
Drexel @ Northeastern +0.2 141.2 46% 76–68 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan -9.3 148.7 18% 70–62 ✓
Rutgers @ Maryland +4.2 139.9 63% 70–59 ✗
Fordham @ Saint Louis +9.7 139.8 81% 45–63 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ UT Martin +0.9 145.4 53% 76–70 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Sam Houston +0.1 142.8 48% 41–49 ✓
Saint Francis @ Merrimack +4.4 134.5 64% 62–46 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Longwood +3.3 142.9 63% 60–66 ✓
Florida State @ Syracuse +1.8 151.9 55% 76–71 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee +10.6 127.6 86% 54–89 ✓
UL Monroe @ UT Arlington +5.1 148.0 77% 62–55 ✗
Denver @ South Dakota State +15.9 160.1 88% 62–80 ✓
Furman @ Chattanooga +7.2 143.6 76% 69–71 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Samford +1.3 145.3 60% 88–85 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Cleveland State +4.4 145.5 72% 70–72 ✓
Texas A&M @ Missouri -8.2 143.1 18% 67–64 ✓
Gonzaga @ Santa Clara -9.9 170.1 18% 115–83 ✓
Norfolk State @ Howard +3.8 144.7 59% 77–74 ✗
Memphis @ East Carolina -4.9 152.3 35% 71–72 ✗
California @ Washington State +9.1 131.8 80% 57–65 ✓
Coppin State @ Morgan State -1.5 146.8 41% 79–76 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Bakersfield -3.2 124.1 29% 65–64 ✓
Texas Southern @ Alcorn State -0.4 135.7 44% 72–73 ✗
North Texas @ Western Kentucky -0.0 133.6 42% 65–60 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UAB +14.2 144.4 87% 65–76 ✓
Utah Tech @ Seattle U +11.0 148.5 85% 68–79 ✓
Chicago State @ Lamar +2.6 134.1 56% 67–56 ✗
Louisville @ Pittsburgh -2.6 134.0 37% 53–65 ✗
NJIT @ UAlbany +1.0 129.5 58% 56–71 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Stetson +1.1 138.3 51% 77–49 ✗
North Alabama @ Central Arkansas -2.3 143.5 40% 88–89 ✗
Oklahoma @ TCU +2.0 135.4 63% 58–59 ✓
James Madison @ William & Mary -10.8 141.6 15% 95–91 ✓
Towson @ Elon -8.8 139.7 19% 59–54 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +13.7 140.9 88% 64–80 ✓
Wake Forest @ Virginia +0.5 131.7 50% 63–55 ✗
Rhode Island @ Massachusetts -2.5 147.5 35% 81–68 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois -1.2 142.4 50% 70–77 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Baylor +15.2 143.0 86% 61–54 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Mississippi Valley State -6.1 138.6 20% 62–60 ✓
Murray State @ Belmont +6.0 148.4 71% 82–60 ✗
Portland State @ Sacramento State +5.8 133.7 63% 67–62 ✗
Northwestern State @ SE Louisiana +9.7 155.7 84% 74–79 ✓
Houston Christian @ McNeese +11.0 145.5 86% 75–78 ✓
Jacksonville @ North Florida -4.4 129.9 26% 54–51 ✓
Bellarmine @ Lipscomb +0.3 148.8 49% 77–71 ✗
Louisiana @ Texas State +4.5 137.0 70% 68–72 ✓
Missouri State @ Valparaiso -2.6 145.4 38% 74–57 ✓
Omaha @ South Dakota +7.5 148.6 77% 70–105 ✓
Toledo @ Bowling Green -5.1 156.5 29% 91–78 ✓
Nevada @ Air Force -1.3 136.3 34% 75–68 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Alabama State +2.1 135.1 59% 55–59 ✓
Nicholls @ LSU New Orleans -3.6 152.7 38% 66–78 ✗
Winthrop @ Charleston Southern -10.5 155.2 17% 70–65 ✓
Georgia Southern @ South Alabama +6.9 141.3 79% 67–73 ✓
Boise State @ New Mexico -7.0 145.5 21% 71–63 ✓
Alabama @ Mississippi State +0.2 153.3 52% 76–78 ✓
Stanford @ Washington -2.2 141.4 41% 64–67 ✗
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee +10.1 141.2 82% 39–50 ✓
Abilene Christian @ New Mexico State +7.3 141.2 77% 63–77 ✓
Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech +6.0 132.7 75% 73–79 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Georgia -5.6 142.6 28% 73–66 ✓
Colorado State @ San José State -8.5 145.5 21% 78–42 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Jackson State +6.2 135.5 67% 63–73 ✓
Southern @ Grambling -5.4 140.2 29% 77–83 ✗
Florida A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -2.9 134.6 30% 71–66 ✓
Boston College @ Clemson +10.7 139.3 84% 70–68 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.