I remember one night the kid cut off his right arm in a bid to save a bit of power. "So It Goes" - Nick Lowe
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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89–25 on winners spread MAE 9.2 114 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Temple @ Cincinnati +5.0 135.7 72% 69–71 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Campbell +4.4 144.1 68% 49–64 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ VCU +4.1 135.0 72% 64–67 ✓
UMass Lowell @ UAlbany +3.4 143.8 62% 79–71 ✗
Tulane @ UCF +4.5 133.9 70% 49–53 ✓
Merrimack @ Central Connecticut -1.8 132.5 41% 72–52 ✓
Milwaukee @ Wright State +18.0 146.0 90% 81–92 ✓
Oakland @ Robert Morris -0.9 155.8 52% 82–88 ✗
Winthrop @ Radford -3.1 145.2 36% 55–47 ✓
Bellarmine @ North Alabama -4.6 142.7 26% 66–64 ✓
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville -4.0 135.1 29% 60–66 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ UTSA +2.7 148.7 69% 80–84 ✓
Akron @ Miami (OH) -3.7 144.3 32% 83–76 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Bakersfield +9.0 138.7 81% 71–76 ✓
UC Irvine @ UC Riverside +3.6 129.0 63% 65–86 ✓
UAB @ Louisiana Tech +1.5 133.5 61% 58–70 ✓
Western Michigan @ Buffalo +14.3 145.8 87% 54–86 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Clemson +5.0 133.7 70% 72–74 ✓
Omaha @ Kansas City +8.4 130.5 80% 52–62 ✓
Denver @ Western Illinois +7.8 156.5 80% 69–75 ✓
Rice @ Western Kentucky +9.5 149.9 83% 71–77 ✓
North Texas @ Southern Miss -7.4 132.9 17% 65–49 ✓
Utah Tech @ Utah Valley +9.8 150.9 84% 72–87 ✓
Little Rock @ Arkansas State -0.8 147.2 50% 62–73 ✗
Illinois @ Nebraska -13.2 146.5 14% 77–72 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Cleveland State +2.5 143.5 62% 89–83 ✗
Florida International @ UTEP +10.6 142.6 84% 59–75 ✓
New Mexico State @ Seattle U +0.8 141.0 51% 72–83 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Hawai'i -3.3 141.8 29% 59–50 ✓
Indiana @ Ohio State +6.9 146.2 77% 59–78 ✓
Wake Forest @ Florida State +9.8 143.4 82% 85–92 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Drake +1.8 137.5 62% 81–54 ✗
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State +14.5 144.5 89% 60–67 ✓
UConn @ Xavier +5.0 137.5 61% 80–72 ✗
UIC @ IU Indianapolis +2.8 142.1 64% 81–88 ✓
The Citadel @ Chattanooga +6.8 154.9 76% 66–70 ✓
Oklahoma @ West Virginia +3.7 145.9 61% 91–90 ✗
Canisius @ Quinnipiac +1.2 138.6 55% 89–70 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State +8.7 143.6 79% 72–51 ✗
Auburn @ Kentucky +2.0 149.9 62% 80–82 ✓
Samford @ VMI +5.0 156.4 72% 56–85 ✓
Northeastern @ Towson -4.2 138.5 37% 76–67 ✓
Elon @ Charleston +6.0 134.0 73% 53–71 ✓
Butler @ Georgetown +3.9 132.9 65% 63–78 ✓
TCU @ Texas +11.1 147.8 84% 55–70 ✓
Tennessee @ LSU +0.6 144.9 54% 65–78 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Lafayette +3.8 144.3 69% 94–97 ✓
Boston University @ Holy Cross +2.1 142.9 71% 65–82 ✓
Stony Brook @ Vermont +11.0 136.6 86% 78–86 ✓
NJIT @ Hartford +2.5 133.7 56% 67–57 ✗
Boston College @ Syracuse +11.0 149.7 86% 67–75 ✓
Norfolk State @ Morgan State +6.1 153.1 73% 74–69 ✗
Oregon @ Arizona +3.6 144.0 71% 63–61 ✗
Bowling Green @ Toledo +11.2 159.8 84% 88–81 ✗
Western Carolina @ Furman +12.9 148.2 86% 70–88 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Mercer +0.0 142.8 47% 77–74 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Kent State +19.8 141.1 91% 58–80 ✓
Hofstra @ James Madison +3.3 147.4 68% 89–93 ✓
Idaho @ Idaho State +11.9 129.7 83% 58–64 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana State -2.7 153.1 36% 85–69 ✓
Iowa @ Michigan State -5.1 152.5 29% 88–58 ✓
Sacramento State @ California Baptist +1.7 155.1 57% 71–83 ✓
UMass Lowell @ UAlbany +4.2 144.7 66% 69–81 ✓
Fresno State @ Air Force -2.3 128.7 38% 67–64 ✓
Milwaukee @ Wright State +17.7 146.0 90% 82–92 ✓
UT Arlington @ Texas State +6.5 129.1 76% 68–79 ✓
Kansas @ Iowa State -13.9 148.2 14% 64–50 ✓
Georgia @ Alabama +12.3 157.3 87% 82–115 ✓
Saint Louis @ Fordham -16.1 130.7 14% 68–40 ✓
South Dakota @ North Dakota -7.2 147.8 31% 76–85 ✗
Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -6.0 134.3 24% 73–71 ✓
Arkansas @ Missouri +1.7 153.3 54% 86–81 ✗
Stetson @ Kennesaw State -5.6 133.8 28% 75–83 ✗
Colgate @ Army -4.0 148.0 23% 84–74 ✓
Illinois State @ Southern Illinois +4.4 139.8 69% 80–55 ✗
Duke @ NC State +2.3 150.9 61% 69–53 ✗
UAB @ Louisiana Tech +1.5 132.2 62% 64–69 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Marshall +18.8 145.5 89% 85–96 ✓
Charlotte @ Old Dominion +3.5 133.4 66% 45–64 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UTSA +2.7 150.0 65% 75–86 ✓
Texas Southern @ Grambling -2.1 139.6 38% 75–73 ✓
Wofford @ East Tennessee State +2.7 142.2 65% 49–71 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Davis +5.9 154.6 75% 76–78 ✓
Weber State @ Montana -0.7 145.2 41% 91–82 ✓
Villanova @ Creighton +1.7 148.3 64% 70–86 ✓
Northwestern @ Rutgers +7.9 136.7 79% 50–64 ✓
Manhattan @ Iona +10.7 132.9 85% 77–70 ✗
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's +10.0 129.0 75% 55–50 ✗
McNeese @ Northwestern State +6.5 150.6 75% 66–69 ✓
South Dakota State @ Oral Roberts -1.6 156.7 38% 86–103 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Youngstown State +4.8 151.9 72% 70–72 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay -0.4 148.7 47% 71–66 ✓
Oakland @ Robert Morris -0.9 156.0 54% 86–81 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Jacksonville State +8.7 142.5 82% 60–80 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Tennessee State -8.2 146.3 20% 93–73 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee Tech +0.1 139.1 42% 67–80 ✓
Morehead State @ Belmont +10.1 143.2 81% 58–73 ✓
North Florida @ Liberty +12.9 136.7 87% 60–80 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Abilene Christian +21.4 136.5 91% 55–83 ✓
South Alabama @ Troy -0.9 134.8 47% 58–51 ✓
Louisiana @ UL Monroe -1.9 136.7 39% 88–72 ✓
North Texas @ Southern Miss -8.0 130.0 16% 68–56 ✓
Alcorn State @ Mississippi Valley State -12.5 140.5 12% 70–56 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Alabama State -6.3 128.8 26% 58–72 ✗
Gonzaga @ San Francisco -11.5 155.2 14% 100–61 ✓
North Carolina @ Virginia +8.3 132.1 76% 48–60 ✓
Bradley @ Missouri State +3.6 135.6 70% 58–80 ✓
Ole Miss @ South Carolina -1.0 139.6 50% 81–74 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Austin Peay +6.9 139.4 74% 63–78 ✓
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville -3.3 133.5 33% 71–69 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Sam Houston +11.2 150.8 86% 57–97 ✓
Arkansas State @ Little Rock +6.3 144.9 76% 67–65 ✗
Lamar @ Houston Christian +3.2 146.4 64% 75–80 ✓
Rice @ Western Kentucky +9.0 149.1 81% 66–89 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.