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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
30–16 on winners
spread MAE 8.0
46 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+2.2 | 149.5 | 55% | 95–86 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.6 | 146.5 | 62% | 64–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.8 | 140.8 | 28% | 87–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 135.4 | 71% | 76–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.6 | 141.9 | 80% | 50–65 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.8 | 143.8 | 19% | 64–61 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.1 | 134.1 | 34% | 76–65 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.2 | 136.4 | 38% | 57–47 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 137.1 | 69% | 70–57 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.2 | 146.7 | 27% | 86–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.7 | 153.0 | 81% | 75–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.4 | 129.2 | 78% | 47–55 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.1 | 151.4 | 85% | 93–89 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.7 | 134.7 | 60% | 58–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.1 | 136.9 | 89% | 55–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.0 | 140.3 | 86% | 68–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 140.1 | 69% | 66–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-11.6 | 135.6 | 17% | 62–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.4 | 142.2 | 86% | 59–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 143.7 | 53% | 65–58 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.4 | 138.1 | 29% | 81–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 129.7 | 73% | 73–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.9 | 135.5 | 87% | 57–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 131.8 | 50% | 67–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.4 | 135.4 | 65% | 68–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.6 | 132.7 | 74% | 66–55 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.2 | 138.4 | 31% | 57–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.9 | 130.5 | 54% | 61–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 152.3 | 71% | 68–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.0 | 129.0 | 65% | 62–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.5 | 149.8 | 70% | 70–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.5 | 135.8 | 50% | 50–51 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.5 | 153.7 | 62% | 70–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.2 | 143.6 | 80% | 51–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.0 | 142.4 | 85% | 62–61 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.5 | 149.7 | 44% | 81–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.4 | 145.0 | 66% | 65–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.9 | 131.2 | 39% | 76–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 135.4 | 75% | 57–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 140.5 | 60% | 49–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 150.4 | 62% | 69–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 143.3 | 56% | 68–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 127.1 | 82% | 49–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 157.8 | 47% | 95–80 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.4 | 148.4 | 31% | 92–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.7 | 143.0 | 84% | 61–71 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.